Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+5.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | D+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elway Research | D+12.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Grove Insight | D+13.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | 2010-10-20 | 400 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-18 | 601 | R+10.0 | 15 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-13 | 2375 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2010-10-11 | 300 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-08 | 400 | D+13.0 | 8 |