Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+2.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fleming & Associates | D+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quest Research Group | D+2.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Feldman Group | D+15.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+18.6 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-25 | 486 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-10-23 | 250 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-20 | 300 | EVEN | 6 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-05 | 250 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2010-09-28 | 289 | D+18.6 | 13 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-09-24 | 250 | D+19.6 | 14 |
| Feldman Group | 2010-09-19 | 500 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-09-16 | 402 | D+23.0 | 17 |