Actual result
D+28.1
Final polls said
D+35.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+33.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fleming & Associates | D+30.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+33.3 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+33.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quest Research Group | D+35.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-25 | 215 | D+35.0 | 7 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-10-05 | 250 | D+39.0 | 11 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2010-09-28 | 276 | D+33.3 | 5 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-09-24 | 250 | D+30.4 | 2 |
| Quest Research Group | 2010-09-16 | 388 | D+34.0 | 6 |