Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
R+0.6
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.2
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.2 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Nielson Brothers Polling | D+1.5 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | PSB Research | D+3.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+13.0 | 15.2 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2010-10-21 | 679 | D+1.5 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-20 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-20 | 800 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-18 | 399 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-09-22 | 400 | D+13.0 | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-07 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |