Actual result
D+2.1
Final polls said
D+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+3.2 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+11.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | MRG Research | D+18.0 | 15.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-25 | 423 | D+18.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-20 | 643 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-08 | 442 | R+3.2 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-27 | 576 | D+3.0 | 1 |