Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+7.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | R+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+2.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-25 | 640 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 579 | R+11.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-08 | 442 | R+7.6 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-13 | 552 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2010-09-08 | 502 | R+3.0 | 3 |