Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+6.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+6.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-15 | 2033 | R+6.4 | 6 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 405 | D+3.0 | 4 |