Actual result
D+12.1
Final polls said
D+3.6
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+19.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | D+3.6 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-15 | 1864 | D+3.6 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-11 | 400 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| Impact Research | 2010-09-28 | 400 | D+25.0 | 13 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-09-25 | 411 | D+18.0 | 6 |