Actual result
R+21.0
Final polls said
R+18.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+21.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+19.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+19.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+17.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+14.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+14.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | R+14.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hendrix College | R+13.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 500 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 809 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-17 | 625 | R+21.0 | 0 |
| Hendrix College | 2010-10-14 | 1953 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2010-10-14 | 566 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-11 | 2124 | R+14.6 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-30 | 500 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-18 | 436 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Hendrix College | 2010-09-16 | 573 | R+27.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-13 | 625 | R+17.0 | 4 |