Actual result
D+16.6
Final polls said
D+15.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+16.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | D+15.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Magellan Strategies | D+18.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+19.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | D+19.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+21.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+10.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-26 | 1171 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2010-10-23 | 797 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-14 | 500 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-11 | 2355 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-10-10 | 928 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-10 | 790 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-10 | 834 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-09 | 1000 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2010-09-30 | 801 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-26 | 500 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | 2010-09-23 | 729 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-20 | 679 | D+15.3 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 500 | D+11.0 | 6 |