Actual result
D+53.2
Final polls said
D+32.1
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+36.0 | 17.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | D+32.1 | 21.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+31.5 | 21.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 40.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-23 | 1181 | D+32.1 | 21 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 500 | D+13.0 | 40 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 1326 | D+36.0 | 17 |