VotePredictor
past elections

Idaho Senate

Tom Sullivan (D) vs Mike Crapo (R)

Actual result
R+46.3
Final polls said
R+44.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+41.6
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyR+44.02.3
2VotePredictorR+41.64.7

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2010-10-21625R+44.02
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2010-09-14625R+44.02