Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
R+8.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+7.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | R+9.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | CrossTarget | R+9.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | MRG Research | R+9.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Mellman Group | D+14.0 | 18.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+17.0 | 21.8 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CrossTarget | 2010-01-17 | 574 | R+9.6 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-01-17 | 804 | R+9.1 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2010-01-16 | 600 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-01-16 | 1231 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| MRG Research | 2010-01-15 | 565 | R+9.6 | 5 |
| CrossTarget | 2010-01-14 | 946 | R+15.4 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2010-01-13 | 600 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-01-12 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-01-11 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2010-01-09 | 800 | D+14.0 | 19 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-01-08 | 774 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-01-04 | 500 | D+9.0 | 14 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-01-04 | 554 | D+17.0 | 22 |