Actual result
D+18.0
Final polls said
D+17.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+18.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | D+13.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+25.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-25 | 580 | D+25.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-16 | 1229 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 652 | D+22.0 | 4 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-13 | 2237 | D+13.7 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-10 | 750 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-13 | 562 | D+16.0 | 2 |