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Toss-up · 2010 Senate
West Virginia Senate
In the 2010 West Virginia Senate race, Joe Manchin, III (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
D+1.6
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orion Strategies | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | ccAdvertising | D+3.2 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | EVEN | 10.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
21 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-316
Public Policy Polling2010-10-305
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-267
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-2312
Public Policy Polling2010-10-234
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 West Virginia Senate race?
Joe Manchin, III (D) won, by about 10.1 points (D+10.1).
When was the 2010 West Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.