Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
D+1.6
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orion Strategies | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+3.6 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | ccAdvertising | D+3.2 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | EVEN | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-31 | 750 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 1676 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-26 | 750 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-23 | 1246 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 750 | R+7.0 | 17 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-10-19 | 804 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-15 | 1696 | D+3.2 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-12 | 750 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Orion Strategies | 2010-10-11 | 450 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-10 | 783 | EVEN | 10 |
| GQR | 2010-10-09 | 612 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 1247 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-05 | 750 | R+6.0 | 16 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-02 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-27 | 500 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-19 | 750 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-18 | 1397 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-08 | 500 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-07 | 679 | R+2.7 | 13 |