Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+5.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.9 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+10.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Repass | D+16.0 | 13.5 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-10-01 | 932 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2011-09-18 | 500 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-09-03 | 708 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2011-08-21 | 500 | D+14.0 | 11 |
| Repass | 2011-08-17 | 300 | D+16.0 | 13 |