Actual result
R+21.9
Final polls said
R+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+13.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Magellan Strategies | R+13.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+10.9 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-09-10 | 629 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-08-20 | 600 | R+1.0 | 21 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2011-08-15 | 656 | R+13.0 | 9 |