Actual result
D+3.1
Final polls said
R+1.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | National Research | R+6.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | American Viewpoint | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Research | 2012-10-22 | 400 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-10-21 | 400 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| American Viewpoint | 2012-09-26 | 400 | R+7.0 | 10 |