Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20/20 Insight | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/20 Insight | 2012-10-31 | 450 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-10-09 | 400 | D+3.0 | 4 |