Actual result
D+9.2
Final polls said
D+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+9.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | D+11.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ward Research | D+11.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2012-10-25 | 657 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Ward Research | 2012-10-19 | 376 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| MRG Research | 2012-09-27 | 846 | D+5.0 | 4 |