Actual result
D+61.1
Final polls said
D+61.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+52.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRG Research | D+58.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ward Research | D+65.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+52.1 | 9.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2012-10-25 | 562 | D+58.0 | 3 |
| Ward Research | 2012-10-19 | 410 | D+65.0 | 4 |
| MRG Research | 2012-09-27 | 751 | D+52.0 | 9 |