Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+8.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1313 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-10 | 1247 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-05 | 1247 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-12 | 400 | D+8.0 | 1 |