Actual result
R+0.3
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+5.1 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+6.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+9.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1360 | R+5.1 | 5 |
| Impact Research | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-10-12 | 458 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-08 | 1253 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2012-09-26 | 400 | D+1.0 | 1 |