Actual result
D+6.6
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+1.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+4.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1325 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| GBAO | 2012-10-17 | 450 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-14 | 400 | R+7.0 | 14 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-09 | 1183 | EVEN | 7 |
| Impact Research | 2012-10-03 | 400 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| GBAO | 2012-09-25 | 600 | R+2.0 | 9 |