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Toss-up · 2012 House
Illinois House
In the 2012 Illinois House race, Tammy Duckworth (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+12.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Shares Corp. | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+14.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+15.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
We Ask America2012-10-281
Public Policy Polling2012-10-255
Market Shares Corp.2012-10-221
Impact Research2012-10-176
We Ask America2012-10-0911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Illinois House race?
Tammy Duckworth (D) won, by about 9.5 points (D+9.5).
When was the 2012 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.