Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+12.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Shares Corp. | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+10.1 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+14.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+15.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1010 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-25 | 500 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2012-10-22 | 600 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2012-10-17 | 400 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-09 | 1171 | R+1.5 | 11 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-10-04 | 315 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-03 | 442 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-19 | 508 | D+14.0 | 5 |