Actual result
R+3.9
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clout Research | R+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+3.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mellman Group | D+14.0 | 17.9 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clout Research | 2012-10-23 | 776 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-30 | 400 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-09-12 | 400 | D+14.0 | 18 |