Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
R+0.7
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | North Star Opinion Research | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | MassINC Polling Group | D+12.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star Opinion Research | 2012-09-25 | 400 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-24 | 371 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2012-09-09 | 401 | D+12.0 | 11 |