Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiese Research Associates | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+11.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | R+14.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-28 | 1168 | R+14.0 | 12 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-10-24 | 352 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-10-14 | 525 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-09-19 | 331 | R+12.9 | 11 |