VotePredictor
past elections

Nebraska House

Roger Mark Sullivan (D) vs Adrian Smith (R)

Actual result
R+48.3
Final polls said
R+40.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+42.1
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+42.16.3
2Wiese Research AssociatesR+40.08.3

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Wiese Research Associates2012-10-24200R+40.08
Wiese Research Associates2012-09-19156R+51.03