Actual result
D+12.1
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Feldman Group | D+10.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fleming & Associates | D+1.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+0.9 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | OnMessage Inc. | R+6.0 | 18.1 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-10-26 | 300 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2012-10-24 | 400 | R+6.0 | 18 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2012-09-30 | 236 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-09-28 | 501 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-09-15 | 500 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-15 | 400 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-09-10 | 578 | D+6.0 | 6 |