Actual result
D+20.6
Final polls said
D+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fleming & Associates | D+17.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+17.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+15.6 | 5.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-10-26 | 301 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2012-09-30 | 235 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-09-28 | 251 | D+24.0 | 3 |