Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
R+8.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+5.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.5 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 12.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+15.0 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 625 | R+12.0 | 12 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2012-10-29 | 414 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-09 | 407 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2012-09-28 | 414 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-10 | 400 | R+15.0 | 15 |