Actual result
D+7.9
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.9 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-20 | 610 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-14 | 592 | R+4.0 | 12 |