Actual result
R+23.7
Final polls said
R+24.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+21.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+27.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+29.3 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2012-10-11 | 642 | R+27.0 | 3 |
| Hendrix College | 2012-09-17 | 2228 | R+21.0 | 3 |