Actual result
D+21.4
Final polls said
D+14.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+20.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+18.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+17.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+17.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Digital Research | D+6.0 | 15.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-11-02 | 469 | D+17.7 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 865 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| Digital Research | 2012-10-30 | 300 | D+6.0 | 15 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2012-09-26 | 200 | D+17.1 | 4 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-09-16 | 428 | D+24.8 | 3 |
| Digital Research | 2012-09-14 | 309 | D+28.0 | 7 |