Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+4.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | D+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+10.9 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+5.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+4.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+3.5 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-11-02 | 436 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-01 | 509 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 768 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Digital Research | 2012-10-30 | 300 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-10-30 | 824 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-07 | 500 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2012-09-26 | 200 | D+10.9 | 2 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-09-16 | 428 | D+6.8 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2012-09-14 | 309 | D+5.0 | 4 |