Actual result
R+21.8
Final polls said
R+16.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+22.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+19.1 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+18.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Wiese Research Associates | R+14.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | R+13.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-11-01 | 1178 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-28 | 1168 | R+22.0 | 0 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-10-24 | 800 | R+14.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 600 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-09-19 | 656 | R+14.0 | 8 |