Actual result
D+5.6
Final polls said
D+2.3
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+7.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | New England College Polling Center | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+3.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | American Research Group | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-04 | 750 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-03 | 783 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2012-11-03 | 600 | EVEN | 6 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-11-03 | 687 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1550 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 690 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-01 | 502 | EVEN | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-01 | 497 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-10-30 | 1017 | D+5.1 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-28 | 1013 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 874 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-10-26 | 400 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-10-24 | 571 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-24 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-21 | 600 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-19 | 773 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 1036 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-15 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-13 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-10 | 600 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-03 | 545 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-29 | 588 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-26 | 600 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 862 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 1012 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-18 | 500 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2012-09-17 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-16 | 558 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 340 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-07 | 588 | D+5.0 | 1 |