Actual result
R+18.0
Final polls said
R+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+14.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+12.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-11-02 | 633 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-10-30 | 671 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-10-03 | 762 | R+10.5 | 8 |