Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+18.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+22.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | D+15.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+13.4 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Voter/Consumer Research | D+4.0 | 21.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2012-10-26 | 1218 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| Ward Research | 2012-10-19 | 786 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2012-10-13 | 1200 | D+4.0 | 21 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-10-10 | 500 | D+18.0 | 7 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-19 | 679 | D+17.0 | 8 |