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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Hawaii Senate
In the 2012 Hawaii Senate race, Mazie Hirono (D) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+18.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+22.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | D+15.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Voter/Consumer Research | D+4.0 | 21.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
MRG Research2012-10-2610
Ward Research2012-10-193
Voter/Consumer Research2012-10-1321
Benenson Strategy Group2012-10-107
Benenson Strategy Group2012-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Hawaii Senate race?
Mazie Hirono (D) won, by about 25.2 points (D+25.2).
When was the 2012 Hawaii Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.