Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+3.8
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | D+11.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+2.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 679 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-01 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-31 | 600 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-29 | 600 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-10-29 | 800 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-29 | 600 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2012-10-25 | 825 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2012-10-24 | 446 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-24 | 600 | EVEN | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-19 | 603 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-10 | 600 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 495 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-03 | 600 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-09-21 | 800 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-09-11 | 800 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 620 | R+3.0 | 9 |