← all past elections
Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Indiana Senate
In the 2012 Indiana Senate race, Joe Donnelly (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+3.8
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | D+11.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+2.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-024
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-11-013
McLaughlin & Associates2012-10-318
Global Strategy Group2012-10-293
Howey Politics/DePauw University2012-10-295
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Indiana Senate race?
Joe Donnelly (D) won, by about 5.8 points (D+5.8).
When was the 2012 Indiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.