Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+9.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harper Polling | D+12.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | New England College Polling Center | D+12.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+13.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+13.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | D+7.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | MassINC Polling Group | D+7.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | ccAdvertising | D+4.2 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+3.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+20.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 2013-06-21 | 500 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2013-06-19 | 1422 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2013-06-18 | 566 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2013-06-18 | 1100 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2013-06-17 | 312 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2013-06-16 | 600 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2013-06-13 | 508 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2013-06-11 | 400 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Harper Polling | 2013-06-11 | 498 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2013-06-08 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2013-06-08 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2013-06-04 | 400 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-06-03 | 560 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2013-06-01 | 734 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2013-06-01 | 357 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| ccAdvertising | 2013-05-29 | 679 | D+4.2 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-05-14 | 880 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2013-05-06 | 500 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2013-05-06 | 600 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2013-05-05 | 497 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2013-05-01 | 679 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-05-01 | 1539 | D+4.0 | 6 |