Actual result
R+13.9
Final polls said
R+5.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+11.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+10.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+9.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Hendrix College | R+8.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+6.1 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+3.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | R+2.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Opinion Research Associates | D+4.0 | 17.9 | ✗ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 1092 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-31 | 400 | D+4.0 | 18 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-28 | 967 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-25 | 401 | D+2.0 | 16 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2014-10-24 | 568 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-21 | 621 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1567 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Hendrix College | 2014-10-15 | 2075 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-14 | 940 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 707 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-03 | 400 | D+4.0 | 18 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1991 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-22 | 500 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 1453 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-10 | 902 | R+4.0 | 10 |