Actual result
R+3.7
Final polls said
D+2.8
10 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Big Village | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+1.3 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | D+2.3 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 963 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-30 | 752 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 907 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1137 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-24 | 623 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-20 | 1124 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1973 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-20 | 757 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-20 | 960 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-18 | 429 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Remington Research Group | 2014-10-11 | 1091 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-11 | 1081 | EVEN | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 702 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-04 | 687 | EVEN | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-04 | 549 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-30 | 850 | D+8.0 | 12 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-29 | 636 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-29 | 500 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2013 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2014-09-23 | 625 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2014-09-18 | 685 | D+2.3 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-16 | 750 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-09-15 | 604 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-13 | 1328 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-06 | 555 | D+7.0 | 11 |