Actual result
R+32.1
Final polls said
R+25.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+25.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+25.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 258 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-10-07 | 625 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 264 | R+23.0 | 9 |