Actual result
R+9.5
Final polls said
R+2.7
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Landmark Communications | R+1.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 11.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications | 2014-11-02 | 500 | R+1.6 | 8 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-10-30 | 500 | R+3.7 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-16 | 400 | D+2.0 | 12 |