Actual result
R+17.3
Final polls said
R+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | R+17.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+19.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+15.5 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2014-10-21 | 442 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| We Ask America | 2014-10-01 | 932 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-17 | 400 | R+19.0 | 2 |