Actual result
R+18.4
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.4 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+12.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | R+10.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-19 | 400 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2014-10-08 | 400 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2014-10-05 | 400 | R+5.0 | 13 |