Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+11.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-11 | 555 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2014-09-27 | 405 | D+11.0 | 10 |