Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.6 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-27 | 665 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-28 | 300 | D+3.0 | 5 |